OPINION POLL1 : : THE TAMIL NADU ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2011 (WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SELF HELP GROUP MEMBERS) By R. Bhakther Solomon |
INTRODUCTION : All the Party Workers are on the streets, the Leaders are on Caravans, the Pollsters and Poll Pundits are on Prediction mode. Journalists are for good stories. Voters are in “expectation” of something. Party cadres, in many cases paid workers, toil out under the scorching sun with a hope to get a win to their party candidates. The polarization of political parties, after sudden twists & turns, settled down in favour two alliances. Two fronts now face the elections. One led by DMK and the second one led by AIDMK. Unfortunately, MDMK with a solid vote bank of 3% decided to boycott!! In this scenario, majority of voters have already made up their mind to whom they would vote. Meantime, political parties / dailies / local / state level and national level magazines and TV channels are on the job of collecting people’s opinions.
SELF HELP GROUP (SHG) – A SOLID BASE : There is a chunk of voters known as Self-Help Group (SHG) members, mostly women, who silently pose / provide a big threat / strength to the political parties because of their total numbers. It is estimated by the Women’s Development Corporation (Mahalir Thittam) that TN has 3.50 lakh SHGs with 55 lakh membership. May be slightly over estimated! Nevertheless, this is a huge number by any standard. This is nearly 12% of the total voters. Since these members are “key decision makers” in the families, it can safely assume that this group has “control” over about 35% active voters. Their likely behavior is a matter of curiosity, if not a matter of concern, like the youth vote banks and Government employees.
This, most vulnerable group, is now being manured and pressurized by different political parties to gain their access and confidence. One alliance promises Rs.2 lakh subsidy for every group another on Rs.2.50 lakh. Unfortunately, this is also the segment from whom one can expect more than 90% polling, if not 100%.
How will this group behave? To know their mindset / intended voting behavior an opinion study was done by the undersigned. The broad conclusions are presented here. The hypothesis is
“Self Help Groups positive tilt towards a particular
alliance will place that alliance in the lead”.
1Since the times of Aristotle, political theories were concerned in one way or another with public opinion. The scientific study of public opinion, however, dates back to only a few decades. The present day scientific polls begin with a basic assumption about attitude and voting behaviour. Public opinion theorists always believe that given the correct sample it is always possible to predict election outcome. This study has taken all the precautions which are needed for a sample study of this nature. Therefore, it is confidently assumed that what is predicted in June 1999 based on the people’s attitude will hold good in September 1999. During 1989 T.N. assembly elections, I did two opinion studies - one in November 1988 and another one in early 1989. Both the times the DMK was placed far ahead of other parties (Times of India & Indian Express). I did a similar study during 1989 KARNATAKA assembly and Lok Sabha poll and placed the Congress (I) on an absolute winning position (Kannada Prabha). Similarly, I did a study during 1991 the last Lok Sabha poll for Tamil Nadu and placed the Congress (I) - ADMK alliance on top. My opinion study of Lok Sabha poll in 1991 predicted for the first time in KARNATAKA, that the BJP would capture 5 Lok Sabha seats (Kannada Prabha). The results proved that my forecast was correct. So also, my opinion poll 2 months prior to T.N. Assembly election in 1996 placed AIADMK on the top (The Hindu and Dinamalar) and naturally this finding forced DMK to look for new alliance. Then came DMK - TMC and the Rajinikanth partnership. But for the alliance DMK - TMC; AIADMK would have received more seats but not enough to form a government. In the last Loksabha Poll, I did the study much before the poll and came out with the finding that AIADMK alliance cannot be written off and it would get atleast 13 seats (The Hindu). Similarly my Poll study of Karnataka (Times of India) gave 10 seats to Congress 10 - 12 to BJP and the rest to others.
METHODOLOGY : For the purposes of this study, 12 districts were selected and from each district, 150 SHG members were randomly picked up. The SHG members meeting took place in places like Banks, village group meeting points and in few cases their homes were the place of interview. More than 60% samples are rural-based. Thus, the sample for the study is 1800 women spread over 12 representative districts in Tamil Nadu. Another 200 men of different age, social background were also picked up randomly from these districts for the study. Thus the total sample is 2000/-, which is a reasonable “sample” for a study of this nature.
- To get more familiar with the individual members, the study volunteers initiated discussions on topics which are general interest to them. In the end, one / two questions regarding their political preferences were asked.
- The investigators have used a semi-structured questions / not any polling booth type exercise which normally reputed agencies use for opinion poll studies. Even this semi-structured questionnaire were not fully displayed to the voters. The volunteers used this as a guide and then filled their replies once the discussion with that person was over.
- The study was done between 15th – 30th March 2011 with the support of few volunteers.
- The undersigned also spent considerable time in the fields discussing the voting pattern of past and the present with the so-called Opinion Makers. Mostly in bus stand / tea stalls.
- The volunteers broad notes were taken into consideration while analyzing the data. The study places 5% margin error !
TABLE 1 : : STUDY DISTRICTS | ||||
S. No. | Name of the District | Name of the District | S. No. | |
1. | Thiruvallur | Chennai | 7. | |
2. | Vellore | Kanchipuram | 8. | |
3. | Namakkal | Nagapattinam | 9. | |
4. | Pudukottai | Sivagangai | 10. | |
5. | Tuticorin | Virudhunagar | 11. | |
6. | Tirunelveli | Kanyakumari | 12. | |
LIMITATIONS :
- 90% of the sample were confirmed to women Self-Help Group members. Hence may not be the 100% representation of the all sections of society.
- However, this limitation was partially offset by interviewing another 200 men sample from all walks of life.
- Since the study was done in March, the voters are yet to become in a poll mode their declared intention may change or remain same.
- Lead party leaders have not visited many of these districts at the time of study.
- Non-use of a well-defined structured questionnaire.
- Justifications: Researchers recommend more respondents for a study of this nature. Nevertheless, since this is confined to a small section of society, it is sufficient.
THE TRENDS
The opinion poll studies outcomes differ from study to study based on the methodology applied. No wonder, few dismiss this as guessing game ! But it is not. Perhaps, people have learnt the art of saying one thing and behaving in just the opposite manner. This gives room for such perceptions. The way in which the poll questions are worded have some bearings on the kind of responses. The result is known to be fallible on account of bad questionnaire.
- A small voting change of 2 – 3% may bring greater change in the number of seats.
So no one can precisely predict the voters behavior and the seats the parties would get. Again, at the last minute, depending upon various Pulls, Pressures, Pushes, Considerations and based on the behavior of Poll Officials, things may change.
Unfortunately, most of rural voters are in an “expectation” mode! Whether the voters also want a share in the “cake” baked by politicians using the Government resources or the voters simply expect a quick return for their the act of kindness. No one knows. However, having done the study, the undersigned is of the opinion, that if the present trend prevails, i.e., taking the SHG member’s opinion, their influence over their friends and families and also other larger opinion makers the following trends can be seen.
Poll Percentage: Though 80% SHG members have already made up their mind as to whom to vote, when the “D” come nearer the % will go up from the SHG segment but from the general voters side the percentage will come down.
Though many declared their intended behavior, all may not go to poll. Hence the study concludes that the overall % of voting is likely to be less than 60%
Party Preference: The present ruling party, DMK seems to be favoured by 26% against 23% of AIADMK. There is an edge for the DMK. Therefore, if all the parties stand alone DMK will emerge as the single largest party, followed by AIADMK, DMDK & Congress.
Alliance Strength: Most of the political parties / outfits are polarized under two alliance. Hence for the sake of Arithmetic, the study calculated the likely voting for each alliance. 4% have said “BJP & others” and another 3% as MDMK. The study made a Threat and Opportunity analysis of these groups and the options available to these two groups. Based on the analysis, we equally divided MDMK i.e. 50% to DMK and another 50% to AIADMK. Others category of 4% is left out as stand alone category.
Dravidian Strength: It is interesting to note that the combined strength of the Dravidian parties is less than 55%. It will be of much interest to know through a Research as to how come the Dravidian parties with combined strength of 55% or less always rules the state? That too one Dravidian party with less than 30% of its own votes is able to rule?
- DMK alliance is represented by DMK, Congress, PMK, VCK and one two splinter Group.
- AIADMK alliance is represented by AIADMK, MDMK, Communists and other minor parties.
- DMK alliance will be polled 40% as against 33% of AIADMK.
- If MDMK votes are equally divided, then it will be 41.5% for DMK and 34.5% to AIADMK.
DMK Alliance | % | AIADMK Alliance | % |
DMK | 26 | AIADMK | 23 |
Congress | 7 | DMDK | 7 |
PMK | 4 | Communists | 3 |
VCK | 3 | ||
Total | 40 | 33 | |
Others | 4% | MDMK | 3% |
Note: It is here the Pollsters relay much on the arithmetic for their predication. Usually, when two partners come together for a particular cause it is believed, all the party workers, will also get united to under the same banner. This may be true or a myth! In the case of political alliances if two foes or friends come lighter, one cannot conclude that the arithmetic will work. Here the chemistry will work more. Nevertheless, based on the arithmetic the table is made.
- 20% members are yet to make up their minds. Out of this, the chances of majority going to polling booth on the poll day by peer pressure or because of some other considerations can’t be ruled out! There is alround expectation of some “push effect” from people. Of the total who have made up their mind, few may not go to poll on the D.Day because of different reasons. Some may not stick to their already declared intension also. Nevertheless, if one divides the remaining 20% undecided / unwillingness voters on the above basis of already committed voters, then the DMK will get another 10.8% as against the AIADMK’s 9.2% of AIADMK votes.
- Uncommitted voters sitting on the fence, it is expected will decide the outcome of the election. But in reality it is not. It is the hard work of party cadres and their battle for survival will win the election.
- Then the Scenario, will arise as follows. In the total polled votes DMK alliance will get 52.3% as against 46.7% of AIADMK. Others and BJP will be 4%
- Election Atmosphere: It is unfortunate that the election carnival atmosphere is missing due to “restrictions” made by the Election Commission. Generally, election time is also a information / ideas transfer time with regards to omissions & commission of different parties through public meeting, bit notices, Bill Boards, Street Corner meetings etc.. In the absence of all the above, the election has become a limited exercise among informed vocal motivated and educated / group. Of course, it is true whenever the leaders caravan travel, there is huge crowds. No wonder, the polling may not be more than 60%.
- Again, the placement of strict “model code” has denied to the ruling party to say few positive things about its achievements. As per the opposition parties are concerned, it is too much crippled as it could not very effectively bring out the omissions and commissions of the ruling parties, especially the 2G Spectrum Scam. Ramasamy of Madurai, wonders whether these restrictions are restricted to Tamil Nadu or all states where election are held.
- As far the major parties DMK, AIADMK, Congress and MDMK are concerned people are familiar with their symbols. “what about others”. Ask a small trader from Nagapattinam said, How will other candidates popularize their the symbols? And how will illiterate be informed about this symbol?
- A cross section of small traders, Taxi and Auto Drivers complain that there is less business this time. Many felt that once in a while during the election our income goes up 3 to 5 times but this time we lost all that bonus income.
- Few opinion makers outside the realm of SHG fold, honestly feel that DMK poll promise of wet grinder, free 35 kg rice, laptop to all students will increase support base of DMK provided it continue to help the people in that free loop mode. Many were surprised as AIADMK has also resorted to this free gifts. All along AIADMK was opposed but suddenly it has also become a prey to poll time promises. “Is Amma serious As Ayah”? Ask Rajalakshmi a House Wife from Chennai. She herself answers saying “Amma may also provide all these”.
- There is a also strong criticism against using government tax money for the free gifts. Many professional educated and even will informed ordinary people do not subscribe the idea of the free gift.
- Alliance strength and No. of seats: Prediction on this front is difficult exercise. Extrapolating the various micro level people’s / voters choices at state level is an art itself. It warrants application of Proven statistical tools. There is no full proof theory for this. But then this study, taking into consideration, the Strike Rate Ability (SRA) of different parties and also based on the voters present choice come to the following seats prediction.
- The chance of any single party crossing the 85 threshold of seats is very remote. There will be very less difference in terms of no. of seats between DMK and AIADMK as single party. May about 15 seats will differentiate between them.
- The DMK alliance will get a minimum of 136 seats to a maximum of 155 seats. The AIADMK alliance will get a minimum of 84 to a maximum of 100 seats.
Parties | Average |
DMK | 84 |
AIADMK | 65 |
DMDK | 15 |
CONGRESS | 23 |
PMK | 20 |
COMMUNISTS | 10 |
VCK | 7 |
OTHERS | 10 |
TOTAL | 234 |
NB: There can be 10% deviation from this prediction Minus – Plus.
Field study Report
Questions | Answers -% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Will you go to for voting during this coming election? Analysis – 80% is quite sure about voting. Nevertheless, on the Election Day all may not go for vote. It is true of more non-SHG members. It is interesting to note that another 9% have not shown any interest. The rest 11% have no idea / or not made up their to vote. Nevertheless, it is very unlikely that the voting will go beyond 60%. NB: Question is put to all 2000. | Yes – 80%; No - 11%; No idea –9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Major problems confronted by you / your SHG during the last 2 / 3 years
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(N.B.: There were multiple answers and hence the total % will be more than 100%)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What you see as a SHG member as your greater need ?
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
From the general voters, the response received was interesting. Solution to the power cut, good transport facilities. Job guarantee, loans at lower rates to do business. Land and home loans at cheaper rate of interest. Educational support to their child. Analysis – More and more members seem to be worried about their wards education and marketing support for inputs and outputs. (NB: Since there are multiple answers for question the total will add up more than 100%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
During the last 2 / 3 years who supported your SHG activities?
(N.B.: There were multiple answers and hence the total % will be more than 100%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Analysis – Mr. Stalin - Bank officials, NGO staff and Block Development Officers seem to be their icon of development. Though few complain about the ill-treatments they received from the bank officials, by and large, there is an appreciation for the bank officials. On further discussion with the members, it was found that they have no proper understanding as to whether State / Centre provide the loan / subsidy. Most women felt that Mr.Stalin has done lot of things for them. Of course, last election also overwhelming group members had said that “Amma” had done lot for them so they would support her. But the situation has changed. One could also see a clear position of change in the beginning of the interview and towards the end of the interview. As the ‘D’ Day comes nearer, the voters may change some of their earlier decisions. Sumathi, a Self Help Group member from Tuticorin, said “I am now confused Ayah promises 2 lakhs and Amma 2.5 lakhs. Who is reliable? Tell Sir”, she wants the volunteer to answer her dilemma"! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Did you or your family receive any benefit from Government.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NB: There are families which received multiple benefits. Though few have listed few more schemes, the investigators could not recollect them.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How do you rate the last five years Government’s achievement?
Analysis – There is a growing feeling among the members that the Government has done well. The reason according to few, seem to be the good working | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
of Government officials attached with their groups and village infrastructure development taken by the Government during the last two years. Nevertheless, many have complained about the officials for not taking quick action. “Though we have made an arrangement with a local NGO for a drinking water overhead tank, the Government is not giving electricity” said Ms.Papammal in a village near to Sankarakovil. There are strong reactions from many voters that Government has not done anything to control prices level and also for improving the power supply in the towns & villages. “Give us continuous power instead of Grinder” said Lalitha from Kanyakumari. Some of the good work cited are good roads, timely ration materials, new schemes for drinking water & educational loan to children, job opening in cities urban areas for youth.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How do you rate the performance of your MLA ?
Analysis – Most of them are not happy about the performance of their representatives. Since many have not seen the local MLA, they refrained from making any opinion.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Whom will you vote for this time ?
| NB: Though few expressed in the beginning their “alliance preference” rather than individual preferences, the volunteers prevailed on them to declare their individual party afflation so as to understand party wise afflation. Analysis: Out of the total 80% clearly identified their political affiliations with one party or other. There is 9% who do not want to vote This would mean that during the month of March, 20% of voters have not decided about their voting intention. As the days proceed, the % of non-voting population is expected to go up. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
On what basis you vote to you a particular party?
(N.B.: There were multiple answers and hence the total % will be more than 100%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Analysis – In rural areas, many still give importance to the family traditions. Caste background also play a major role. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Did the DMK full fill the promises made in the last manifesto?
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What you think of 2G Spectrum and who received benefit.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Analysis: There is less and less awareness among the members regarding the 2G Scam. Unfortunately, neither the points of view of the ruling party or the allegations of the opposition parties have any desirable impact on the general population. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Do you own a cell phone?
It seems that about 39% of families have cell phones. It is interesting to note that more than 18% families have their own cell phone. Really the country is in progress mode.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Coalition: This time, after the poll the non-Dravidian parties will be in Driver’s Seats. Their support base will become the survival tonic for DMK or AIADMK. Smaller parties, will have to lend their support to any one of the Dravidian parties. Nevertheless, the minor political parties will dictate terms and will ultimately become the small kings – “Kuru Nila Mannargal” . Will they shift sides after the election ? No one can rule out the possibility. Except the Congress, the DMK and AIADMK, others many look for greener pastures after the election. This could be avoided provided people give a total of 80 Plus to either DMK or AIADMK.
Caution: The field study is done following a full proof method based on the theory of People’s Participatory Approach. However, prediction of election results, is still very difficult job. This is because poll politics is a world in itself which constantly change. Everyday, the scene changes and new formations / combinations / fermentations take place at the micro level. Past pre-poll surveys, have indicated that if the prediction is based on sound principles of peoples preference, and discussion with the sample voters are made in a close and friendly atmosphere, the predictions normally become true.
God’s Choice: Leave the prediction, many God fearing persons want God to be the prime mover during the election. They are more worried about the law impending and order problems. They want not only the Election Commission but God’s hands to move in the State for safety of larger public during the poll. So election day happening and the results will ultimately will be the decision of God.
Whom the Almighty will prefer: no one can say.
Meantime, let us watch the process, progress the fun and pray to God to allow the small traders / businessmen / cab owners to earn a little extra at the cost of election ! At the end, its going to be a big tamasha for a day, but all the voters will be forced for one month to see whom they voted for! Strange! Election Commission should have been little more fair to the voters.
Place : Chennai R. Bhakther Solomon
Date : 01.04.2011
« « «
APPENDIX
SEX, AGE, RELIGION AND OCCUPATION
Out of the 2000 samples only 1600 extended their co-operation to discuss with us. Out of this 1800 are female and the rest 200 are male.
Sex Total
Male 200
Female 1800
Total 2000
As far as occupation is concerned, more number of voters come from daily wage earning group. Even the agriculture land owners with 3 acres of dry land, and those who work in others' fields are classified as wage earners.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Category No. %
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daily wage earners 1098
Monthly Income 272
Not working 245
Business 60
Other 325
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 2000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
