Rashtrapati  Bhavan - Who will adorne the highest office Chair of the greatest democratic country, the Indian Union?

By

R. Bhakther Solomon

Stage one. The race for the highest office in Raisina Hills has begun. During the month of May, all the Political parties, are preoccupied with the consideration of possible names for the highest office. The print media as well the electronic media are also very vibrant in suggesting names for the highest office. While the major political parties, viz  the BJP and the Congress are keen that their nominee should  be elected, as they expect that after the next Lok Sabha election, the incumbent President will have to play a key role in “installing” the next government. No wonder, even regional parties are also particular that their chosen person should be in the office. The logic is  in the event of  any regional Chieftain claiming to form the government with "outside" support from other parties, he / she can expects the President to call him / her to form the government. The choice is now  veering around keeping “our man/ woman” in office rather than an eminent personality with socio-economic and political experience occupying the highest office.

  UPA means the Congress nominee. The UPA with about 40% votes under its command is yet to formally announce the name. Nevertheless, inside the party circles, two important names are reportedly being considered by the party. The present Vice- president Dr. Hamid Ansari and then the ever active experienced politician  the present Finance Minister Mr.Pranab Mukherje. There is also a possibility that in the last minutes, a new dark horse may emerge as the party nominee, as  unexpectedly happened in 2007. Even the present Lok Sabha speaker Ms.Meira Kumar, a soft spoken person, is also being thrown as a “consensus” candidate.  She is a dalit leader and the daughter of late. Mr. Jagagivan Ram, the person who missed the chance of becoming the first Dalit PM of the country. Mr.Morarji Desai spoiled his chance in 1977, West Bengal CM. Mamata Banerejee may  to back her. Mr.Antony, often referred to as Mr. Clean is also being occasionally mentioned in few quarters. Presently DMK, and NPC are in agreement with the Congress, if any one of the two is being nominated. The communists parties may also extend their support, provided the choice is confined to any one of them. There is every possibility of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) Chief Mayawati supporting the UPA candidate, unless she herself stands for the august office. SP is not very vocal on this so far. It is keeping its cards very close to its chest.  May be Mulayam Singh may be waiting for some one to suggest  his name!  However, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s presence in UPA’s eighth anniversary function on 22^nd May at 7, Race Course Road, may be a 

. Pranab Mukherejee

welcome addition to UPA’s vote Bank. In a sense during the anniversary function the Congress party or for that matter Ms.Sonia Gandhi had demonstrated that it had the numbers to get its own nominee elected. Mr. Ram Vilas Paswan, Lok Janshakti Party has  already committed to support the UPA candidate. Eventually, the chance of the Congress nominee getting an upper hand cannot be ruled out.  It may not be out place to record here that I had the opportunity of listening to Mr.Pranab Mukherejee,  March 1995 at Cophengan Denmark when he addressed a small group of about “15 Indian NGO Delegates” to the World Summit for Social Development. The dialogue session helped us to understand the India’s stand on Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). I was the one mostly clicking photos in the session! No wonder, I missed a good photo with him!

                        

UPA Chairperson. Ms. Sonia Gandhi  has not publically spoken anything about the President election so far. However, there are reports that she is likely to meet the opposition parties within next one or two weeks for a consultation in this regards. She may suggest few names from her side or may even try to seek suggestions from the opposition parties. She may be giving an image that she is for a “consensus candidate”. Once the consultation process is completed, she is likely to meet the other UPA constituents  to get their support. There is every chance that all the UPA partners in en-block would commit their support fully to the Congress nominee.  So as of now UPA candidate is likely to get a minimum of 40% of votes. In case, the communists, SP & BSP come forward to support the Congress nominee, then that person will have clear win. The total electorate strength is 1009882. The winner must get 549442!

R.A.Sangma. A quick more from Dr.J.Jayalalitha. AIADMK Supreme Dr.J.Jayalalitha  who nourishes the hope of becoming PM or a major player at the centre after the next election, proposed the name of Mr. Purno Agitok  Sangama, the former Lok Shaba speaker from North East for the highest office. She has received support from Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik, the BJD president. It was learnt that Sangama had earlier canvassed for his name  on the count that so far no tribal has occupied the highest office. There are about 100 million tribals in the country.  He had also met Dr. Jayalalithaa  along with her daughter, Ms. Agatha Sangma who is a minister in the UPA government! Dr. Jayalithaa had also during the last couple days spoken to many like minded party leaders –BJP leaders L.K.Advani, Community party of India (M), General Secretary Prakash Karat, CPI Leader A.B.Bardhan, TDP Leader Chandra Babu Naidu, SP Leader Mulayan Singh and Punjab Chief Minister Parakash Singh Badal.  Unfortunately, she has not sought the support of Mamtha and Mayawati. It may not augur well for  her status.  Perhaps, she does not want either Maya or Mamthawati to take credit for the nomination of Sangama!  So far, Mayawati is indifferent to the name suggested by Dr.Jayalalithaa. It is also a surprise why Dr.Jayalalithaa nominated Mr.P.A.Sangma. She has her own reasoning but it is not convincing!

Image building move. Accordingly to local leaders, it is a smart move.  It may also help her to  boost her image at the national level, as a champion of minorities.  It may also help her to try her luck in forming and leading a Third Front just before next Lok Sabha Election.  It is tactical move by the AIADMK leader Dr. Jayalalitha not only to pre- empt the congress, game plan to field Vice- President Ansari or the union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee. Though it is a politically strategic move by the AIADMK to make others, especially  BJP to fall in line with her selection.  many from the North are  now put in a spot including BJP. According to Dr. Jayalalithaa “Sangama not only belongs to a tribal community but is also eminently qualified to the president of our great nation”. Unfortunately, Mr.Sangama, NCP, General Secreary, may not  get the support of Mr.Pawar,  the NCP leader who along with Sangama left the congress party a decade ago and formed Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Their major plan at the time of NCP formation was their opposition to Ms. Sonia.  Mr.Sangma was expelled from the Congress on May 20, 1999 along with Sharad Pawar and Tarig Anwar for raising the banner of revolt against Sonia over her foreign origin issue.

Liked by many. During his time as minister in the Centre, Mr. Sangma was liked by many. That was precise reason that though he was in opposition, in 1996 he was elected to office of speaker of Lok Sabha. It is an irony that Sangama’s daughter  is now  the youngest Minister of State in UPA. After the President election she may be dropped out from the cabinet! On the otherhand, if Sangama get elected she may also get an important cabinet berth! No body knows whom the God of Luck would favour! Incidentally, I had the rare privilege of explaining / demonstrating with Pre & Post village models  to Mr.A.P.Sangama in May 1997,  (when he occupied the post of Speaker), the Development process initiated by Action Aid, Chitradurga District, Karnataka Projects(AKP) in backward areas for the Development of poor  Chitradurga in Karnataka. I noticed that he was good listener, made keen observations and asked few searching questions, which I readily answered. He appreciated the good work done by us.

BJP late comer in the scene. The next major party, the BJP seems to be in introspection mode. Few weeks ago, there was an open talk of few in BJP favouring a second term for the former President Dr.Abdul Kalam. Few other parties like SP from UP was also not averse to a second term to Dr. Abdul Kalam. Even Dr. Abdul kalam seems to enjoying the idea, as from his side opinion makers are happy about his name is being floated in the circle. So also the electronic media and print media, for reasons best known to them, seem to be egging Dr.Kalam’s name.  The former president seems to be enjoying the move, contrary to expectation that he would rule out his candidature. Once tasted the power even people like Dr. Abdul Kalam, who many claim to be man of principle is not averse to enjoying one more term. In the current political situation, I may not vote for him! Anyway, I am not in the electoral roll!  Many good things we miss in life! It does not matter much now!

BJP Mr.L.K. Advani.  BJP is in a disarray. There is confusion among the top leaders as to whom to support. BJP does not want the UPA candidate. It is also not keen to endorse Dr.Jayalalitha’s request. It is better that BJP promote the candidature of Veteran Advani rather than going around with a “search” of names or simply accepting other names suggested by other parties. He is eminently suited for the post. His erstwhile colleague Mr A. B Vaiypee had served as the PM of the county. Unfortunately, Advani, a long standing parliamentarian with good track record of serving in the Government as Minister and then Deputy Prime Minister had missed the PM post in May 2009. So it is time for him to be elevated to the highest post. I am sure all NDA partners would  accept him for the post. Even if some from BJP may have  “reservations” they may not openly oppose him.  NDA presently has about 28% votes! He may even get support  from SP and BSP.   In the event of Advani being nominated AIADMK,  naturally of BJP may have to re-consider its earlier decision. Dr. J.Jayalalitha will be ready to drop Sangma!

                         

 June Final countdown. The month of June will see few more names being considered  for the post like former West Bengal Governor Mr.Gopal Krishna Gandhi, Mr.M.M.Rajendran IAS, former Chief Secretary of Tamil Nadu, the Delhi Lawyer’s Forum is motivating Mr.Nariman, the senior Supreme court Lawyer.   In the beginning of the race even names like Mr.Sam Pritoda Mr.Karan Singh and Mr.Farook Abudullah were talked about!  Alas, no body seems to be nominating Mr.Anna Hazare or Ms.Kiren Bedi or Mr.Kerjiwal or Mr.Jethmalani.

Of all the names currently being discussed Mr.Pranab Mukurjee will make a good President as he has wide  experience of public life and the skill & experience  required for the job.

Will the Congress spare him to this elevated post?  The Congress party will have to take a hard decision. If  Mukurejee is elavated it will   be good for the smooth  functioning of the Government. If the congress is  particular that its nominee should be elected to the post, it should be prepared to consider a person from opposition parties to the post of Vice- President. In should be not insist that its nominee should elected to the President & Vice President posts.

 Conclusion.  In the selection of the candidate for the President post, class, caste, religion and other regional factors should be kept outside the discussion. The country needs an eminent person with sound legal knowledge, political sagacity, a friend to all the parties, an honest and principled person, as the country is expected to undergo lot of radical changes not only in the economic field but also in bringing social equity  measures for its citizens during next 5 years. In short we can only Pray that let our elected representatives choose the best  one from the probable candidates. Long live Democracy & the office of President of India.  

Dr. Jayalalitha, CM of Tamil Nadu, a strong PM candidated or a PM decider

Dr. Jayalalithaa,  CM of Tamil Nadu, a  strong PM candidate or a PM decider.    

An opinion from Tamil Nadu

By

R.Bhakther Solomon

 

The smart one. Your issue dated 23^rd January 2012, had published an article “the spring of the Matriarchs” wherein, Mr.Hartosh Singh Bal, analysed the possibility of any one, out of the three, lady CM becoming the PM of the country. For reasons best known, he has not mentioned Ms. Shella Dixit in the race, even though she is a much more capable leader. Since the election is scheduled to be held only in 2014, it is too early to throw names in the corridors of power or even among the public. However, since the UPA at present is not in a strong position, there is an element of doubt about the UPA completing its full 5 years term. No wonder, the print, the electronic media as well as the poll pundits have started wondering as to who is the  fittest person for the job. To certain extent, the two leading national parties are clear.  Congress votes for Rahul! BJP may have some confusion with!  Advani and Modi already lined up. As days progress other names will also come up from BJP, including that of the party president.

Regional  Parties: The regional parties are yet to make their possible alliance intention . How many regional chieftains will be with the Congress? Will DMK, NCP and NCP continue to be  in alliance with the congress? What  will AIADMK  do? Will it go alone or form an alliance with its “natural ally” BJP?  Incidentally, it is BJP which says AIADMK is natural ally and not AIADMK. Who will regional satraps like SP, BSP, Nitish Kumar  and Laloo ally with is not clear .Most importantly,  what will the Communists, a party losing its base everywhere, do? Will it try to form a Third Front with all the minor frustrated parties and become a “spoiler”/ “decider”? All these things are in a fluid stage. Under such circumstances, it is premature to make any prediction.  Be that as it may. As far as the prediction of the one lady CM making to the top spot, as the one who has been closely watching the poll scene for more than 3 decades, I would say out of the three / four ladies, if chance is given, Dr. J. Jayalaithaa will out smart others.

Mandate.  In the last Tamil Nadu Assembly election in July 2011, people of Tamil Nadu voted her, rather her alliance, with the hope that she would give good governance to the state for the entire term, as then the voters felt that the  State was in complete shambles under the DMK rule. Though AIADMK/her alliance was voted to power with a massive mandate, it is important to note that the AIADMK alliance polled only 51.93%. Had the party fought alone the last Assembly election, the AIADMK may not have got a massive majority. But then one should also acknowledge the fact that the AIADMK would have emerged as the single largest party in the state. Probably, AIADMK, would have even got the simple majority. The massive victory she got during the assembly election thanks, to the alliance and the recent civic election when the party fought the elections on its own might have fuelled the hope in her that AIADMK as a single party  can sweep all the seats  in the forthcoming Lok Shaba election in Tamil NDU. So the slogan / Mantra by the party workers “Yesterday Tamil Nadu Assembly, to day Civic Polls and tomorrow the Parliament”.

Alliance falls out. Presently all of AIADMK’s erstwhile alliance partners( mainly  DMDK, PT, both the communists) are not in good terms with her/ and her party. The AIADMK does not want to carry them along with it- it considers all the alliance parties as excess baggages- is yet another story. But then their departure from the alliance only shows that the AIADMK may not now command the respect and the support it had commanded during the last election. These parties would  wipe out  a minimum of  8 % of the vote base from the alliance arithmetic .This would mean a loss of about 55 assembly  seats. The Sasikala exit is also another alliance fallout! By throwing out a person of extra constitutional authority from the corridors of power the party earned a morale booster. This  must have happened long ago but still it is not too late in completely destroying the coterie around the Sasikala. But then,  in the electoral arithematic Sasikala’s entry or exit in no way bring any loss or gain to the party. The intelligentia now feel that Sasikala has  now been replaced by a new set of advisors. They are respected for the theories but not for the practices. So in between the last Assembly election and the present time AIADMK has lost a minimum 8% of votes on account of the alliance fall out.  Thirdly in last election the non-committed voters roughly about 11% were with the AIADMK alliance. Presently, there  is some discontent among the non-committed voters. They are now a divided house.

Reach of welfare schemes. No doubt the State under her leadership is emerging as forerunner in many social security schemes meant for the poor. The government has increased monthly pension for the destitute and underprivileged to Rs. 1000 under the old age scheme. This is the highest in the country.  Immediately after the election she announced  free rice scheme whereby all the poor, first time in the state for that matter in the entire country, were ensured  food security. The late MGR introduced the free mid- day meal to all the children. Earlier in the 50’s itself the Congress regime under the late K.Kamaraj also had a mid-day meal. When MGR made announcement of “free meal” many opposed the scheme saying he is making our children as “beggars”. But then many development economists, including the highest court at one stage hailed this as one of  the best development schemes implemented in the country. No wonder, many states followed this mid- day meal scheme. Similarly, in the present scheme, though few finance experts see something wrong , it is being welcomed by many as the one which provides the food security to the poor. Even the centre’s recent Food Security act fall short of providing the real food security to the poor. The Government’s scheme of distribution milch cows, sheep and goat has received remarkable response from the poor and about 1.12 lakh families will benefit during 2011- 2012. The recent health insurance scheme is also welcomed by many. Though it was earlier implemented by the DMK government, she made good improvements.  This act of her was even hailed by the former CM Dr. Karanunidhi as best schemes by the Governments. However , as far as the poor housing scheme is concerned, though the govt modified the earlier Kalaingar Housing Scheme with Green House Scheme  with higher subsidy, it is yet to take a big headway. Instead of 6000 houses planned for the year 2011-2012 only about 600 houses are under construction.

Thane cyclone. Unfortunately as Tsunami hit in 2004 during her previous rule, this cyclone came  and devastated lives of Cuddalore district fully and few villages in five more districts. There are thousands of families which have completely lost their livelihood like cashew, Jack fruits and coconut crops. They will have to wait for the next 5 years without any income from the land/ trees. It is reported that more than 1 lakh huts were destroyed. So also many good trees which had provided lot of green cover / environmental protection to the region were destroyed. How the Government is going to compensate the affected  families is not clear. Of course CM has announced a good package as immediate relief. “In the Governors speech to the Assembly the Government said that it will construct 3 lakh houses for the affected families”.  In the case of Tsunami, many Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) came into the scene  and not only supplemented the government’s efforts of relief but also came in a big way to provide   livelihood - boats free of cost, some families had received two or three boats in the place earlier one catamaran, and all the families who had lost their homes have received good houses, about 25000 permanent shelters, each costing roughly Rs.2.25 to Rs.3.5 lakh in about 56 villages. Tanks to the interventions of the NGOs the affected areas have received good rehabilitation. In the case of Thane cyclone the NGOs presence is hardly visible as against multiple NGOs  presence in the Tsunami affected areas. In overall the affected families are not happy.

Issues: Some of her decision which AIADMK party leaders and the workers hail as the best thing she had done for the  state, when it comes to the general public and in particular the previous DMK government, all think that the decisions are not  good measures for the growth of the state. The confusion and the delay caused on account of court cases with regard to the implementation  of uniform syllabus (Samachir Kaluri) was not appreciated by many parent. AIADMK’s decision to dismiss the Makkal Nala Paniyalar is yet another unfavoured decision. The high court has now asked the Government to reinstate them. Her decision to convert  the Omanthur new secretariat building constructed  with a cost of about Rs. 900 crores  by the previous government, as a general hospital  is not welcomed by All. So also her decision to Change the Anna Library new building constructed  and being appreciated as one of the best buildings/ libraries in the whole county is also not viewed favourably by the public.  Yet another measures introduced by her- the 40 to 50 % increase in the bus fare and the similar one proposed high  increase in electricity - and the milk price rise are not welcomed by many. There is no improvement in law & order situation. No relief from price rise of commodities. No body can stop this! The Government could not  do much to stop the attack and the harresment of Tamilnadu fishermen by SriLanka Navy. The development economist feels that the state in order to implement its much publicised welfare free same , unnecessarily and unwantedly impose heavy penalties on all section so society.  The Government is not clear with regard to its stand on Kudankulam Nuclear Plant. Again, Mullai Periyar river has suddenly sprang up.  In all these, the Government is in the receiving end.

Time  factor: The fruits of the much published schemes are yet to reach the poor and the intended target group. So everywhere a kind of disillusionment is seen. Nevertheless, it is good that people are not as frustrated as they were during the DMK regime.  Luckily she took these unpalateable decisions atleast 2 years prior to the forthcoming election. Hence there is a possibility of people ignoring the ommissions provided there are other good development schemes in the anvil for the state. After the all, hardly 8 months have passed after the election. It is too early to judge the performance or of an elected government. The public should give at least 2.5 years to judge the performance of a government. AIADMK has the time to amends most of its mistakes and deliver good to the community. It is also true that all voters all the time will not be content with the Government. There will always be about 50% of the critic voters. Nobody can satisfy them.

Will she make it?  At this stage, it is premature to talk about next PM. There are many dark horses in the race, atleast 8 stalwarts from different parties. Her close advisors have kindled the spirit of Super Power in her. No wonder, she looks for the top post in the country. This talk, one way helps her to be the best Administrator of the country! She should first earn the good name in the state from all sections of society. Then should aspire to be the PM. Dreaming a bigger post in the future, she should not ignore the present role. AIADMK under her leadership needs a new Development strategy. How can that strategy be planned will be proposed by me in my next article.  Meantime let us think that she is definitely a good material to become the PM like Mr. Modi or like Mr. Nitsh Kumar of Bihar. However, the more the number of seats she gets in Tamil Nadu, the more the probability of she playing any role at the centre. Anyway aiming at the bigger role for her by her and of her by her followers is nothing wrong. Only the time will answer, as already history had made few state leaders, without all India base as PM. We should, at this juncture, keep in mind the other aspiring PM candidates- Rahul Gandhi, Advani or Susma or Modi from BJP, then Mayawathi, Mamatha, Nitsh Kumar and even people like Laloo.  UP result will give the clue as to who can cherish the hope more to become the PM of the country. Let us wait for the round one result!r

dc

UP; will the congress make it? There is a possibility , provided the sister and the brother unitedly work together.

UP; will the congress make it? There is a  possibility , provided the sister and the brother unitedly work together.
By R. Bhakther Solomon

Beginning: Things are now in the fast track mode for the election in UP. Ten days are left for the first phase of voting. The entire country is looking forward to the result. The outcome is bound to throw few conclusions as to who would win the next Parliamentary elections, whenever that election is held. There are indications from the ground that the Congress party has nothing to lose but to gain only. How much it will gain is the speculation now. Will it emerge as the single largest party in the state? Will it cross the 99 seats mark? If it gets a three digit mark, will it form the Government on its own or will it try to rope in SP or even seek the support of BSP to form the government? These are few questions which are upper most in the minds of poll analysts/ poll pundits. No doubt, the Congress party is now ahead of other parties in the campaigning.

Sister appeal. Should Priyanka confine herself only to two MP constituencies or should she intensively and extensively work in the state? In case she/ the congress party decides to field her, what will happen to the poll out come? This is what is giving sleepless nights to may politicians. There is a feeling from many parts of the state that if Priyanka makes a whirl wind tour of the entire state, the party might get about 35-50 additional seats in the state.  Rahul Gandhi, so far does not want her to travel beyond the two MP seats which he and his mother Sonia represent in the Parliament. This could be keeping in consideration her security or he may not want someone in the party to take credit for the victory of the party. Even if Congress gets about 75 seats he would like to be honoured for the same. Nothing wrong. But in politics one must adopt give and take policy.

CM Candidate  from the Congress: So far he  or the Congress party has not declared who will become the CM of the state, if for some miraculous reasons the party emerges as the biggest party. To set things in the proper order, I would recommend and appeal to Rahul to declare publically that he would be the CM candidate from the Congress and contest from an assembly seat. This will give the party a big boost and he can then invite his sister also to canvass for the  party beyond the limited areas. To start with, the party will have to take two important strategic decisions.  First, induct Priyanka into the entire state canvassing engagement and then most importantly, announce Rahul as the CM candidate. These two annoucements will revitalise the spirit of the party workers from the length and breadth of the state. No wonder, there is every chance of the party emerging as the single largest party in the state. Who knows it mighty also get the needed simple majority.

                                                                                                                       

Raghul as the CM of UP. After  the last Lok Sabha election when the ministry formation was seriously talked about, many young and the old in the party felt that Rahul should either become the PM or at least an important cabinet minister. During that time I felt that the time has not come for him to become a minister, leave alone becoming PM of the country. Though a few columns I have said that he should  resist the temptation to become the minister, instead try and work out a strategy to become the CM of the largest state in the country , namely UP. I felt that this would give him enough apprenticeship in the art of statecraft and then later he can move to the centre. The time has now come for him to become more pro- active in the governance of the UP. Will he take the responsibility or shy away?   

 

dc

UP election: a bumpy road travel poses the challenge for Rahul Gandhi, the young leader to reach the final destination

An editor of a leading News Paper said that the state polls are critical for UPA in Delhi.  What he meant is that the polls outcome in the short run will alter the power equation in the Upper House. But in the long run, it may alter the power equation in the country, as the UP poll will decide who will pilot the statecraft from 2013/2014. The UP poll is likely to create a butterfly effect in National politics. It will either elevate or mar the prospects of the young Rahul Gandhi assuming the bigger role in the country in 2013/2014. If he wants to be the PM of the country, better he becomes the CM of the biggest state in the Indian Union. If he is not fully equipped and qualified to make the party to assume power in UP, he may not be fit enough to lead the party in the next general election, which most probably will take place much earlier than in 2014 as originally scheduled.

Will Congress gain more seats in UP? The chance of the party improving its present tally of 22 seats is much greater but then definitely it will not improve its tally by ten times. The magic number is 203. If the Congress gets 203  then it will be a political miracle to talk about for years to come. Had the congress party and the young leader conducted the last 2 years poll preparations much more systematically, even getting this magic figure would have been within  the party’s reach. But the party leader failed to provide the needed impetus to the party, as he had failed in Tamil Nadu. Of course, in TN he and the party lost all the credibility after election. But in UP it has some credibility.  Hence it is still possible for the Congress to be an active player in UP.

What is the chance of the congress party getting a 100 plus in UP? Very likely! But then will it be the single largest party in UP? Or it will be pushed to 2nd or 3rd position? No one can say now.  Its immediate goal should be to run faster than BJP so that the BJP is pushed in the fourth position than to the third one. If the party gets 100 plus, will there be a chance for the party to align with SP or BSP to form or part of the new government? Will the erosion in the vote bank of BSP help the Congress or the SP?? What is the chance of BJP improving its tally?

What is the current scenario? The coming weeks will slowly unfold many things which may give pointers for the pollsters to predict the things that is in store for not only for the UP but for the country in particular. For the time being let me predict that the chance of the Congress party emerging as the third largest party is much higher. Will it gain more ground to emerge as the 2nd or the third single party? More will be in the next week analysis.

Poll Surveys: Meantime, it is good to record here that there are already two pre poll surveys out and both predicted SP as the forerunner, followed by BSP, the congress and the BJP. These surveys were done much before the alliance are forged and also before the election schedule are announced. After these two developments much water are expected to flow down in the Ganges and that will make much differences in the final outcome. Long live party politics.  

The next PM of the country: the hunt for the leader has started

Hobson’s choice. Last week, the AIADMK supreme  gave  a Clarion call to her party workers to work very hard henceforth so that her  party could play the role of a King or Queen maker and would be able to influence the decision on who would become the next PM of the country. She also informed her party workers that the time was ripe for the AIADMK to go beyond the borders of Tamil Nadu.  She asked the cadres to work diligently in the coming days and achieve this goal.  Indirectly, of course, she has made it very clear that her “inner most wish” is to become the PM of the country herself. She is fortunate that she heads a party which strongly follows her dictums. No wonder, the party cadres as well as the leaders are all support for what ever Amma wishes for...

Dr. Jayalalithaa for the post? Dr. Jayalaithaa has been aspiring for more than a decade to become PM or at least wants to be in a position to  “select a PM” of her choice. Earlier, she depended on Mr Subramaniya Swamy to do the ground work in  Delhi for her elevation. Somehow he was never able to help her achieve this dream. Now she seems to be depending on Mr. Cho Ramaswamy and Gurajat CM Mr. Modi. Maybe her new advisor Mr. Cho Ramaswamy may have also sown such a seed in her thoughts.. Every Tamilian will feel proud if this were to become possible following the next General election.  If Mr. Deva Gowda can become the PM, then Dr. Jayalalithaa is by all means not only a highly suitable candidate but also a very able one at that. In fact  7 years ago I met a former AIADMK Minister and expressed this idea to him & requested him to take up this matter with her, however, he  did not show much interest & hence I left the matter there!

Other regional leaders. To fullfill her wish she needs to get the support of either of the two leading parties - the BJP or the Congress or seek support from the third front, including the communists. There is a remote possibility of Mr. Modi supporting her in the event of BJP not staking claim  to rule at the Centre. But will Sushma Swaraj allow this for she has her own aspirations. The media has already lined up few candidates from the regional parties and Mr. Nitsh Kumar, Bihar CM is considered a strong possibility... If Mayawathi retains power in the upcoming assembly elections in  UP, the media might even annoint  her as the next PM. The media has also often thrown up the names of the less ambitious Bengal CM as a another possibility. It is good to note here that the Gujarat CM is himself cherishing such a wish. Probably  he might in turn be looking for support from Dr.JJ. Between them, it is only give and take policy, “either you become or support me”. Mr. Modi is expected to be in Tamil Nadu in mid- January. There are reports that claim that he will be meeting up with his counterpart in Chennai.

  

Seats Matters: To ensure that Jayalalithaa is the choice for the PM’s post, her party should have a sizable number of seats at her command; let us say a minimum of 30 seats provided no national party has 125 seats or more. Her intention is to completely sweep the entire 39 seats from TN and the lone seat from Pondicherry. As things stands now, she / her party may be able to get a maximum of 20 seats provided there is no crisis in the state before the General Elections. The less the number of seats, the less the probability of her playing any role and the vice versa. Aiming for a  bigger role for her and for her party is not inappropriate but in keeping with the political ambitions of most regional parties. Only time will tell if the the dear leader of AIADMK cadres will become the head of the Nation. But given that there has already been precedents of regional leaders like  Mr.Deva Gowda (despite the fact thtat he lacked mass appeal) becoming the Prime Minister, it would be tardy to rule out Jayalalithaa chances.

Conclusion: If the Congress emerges as the single largest party in UP, one can be rest assured that Congress will form the Government at the centre with Mr.Rahul Gandhi as PM. Only in the case of this eventuality will the dreams and hopes of all the other regional leaders be crushed!r