TAMIL
NADU ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2016
Introduction:
Elections to Tamil Nadu Assembly will take place in March/ April 2016. Party leaders from the National Status to
State level parties are exploring different combinations, marketing instruments
and techniques to harvest as many votes as possible. It is not surprising that
all the political parties except one or two in the state are trying to forge an
alliance with other like - minded parties, either in the hope to lead the alliance or at least to be the leading player
after the election. Nevertheless, what
is in store for the voters & the parties can accurately be foreseen by the
Almighty and to some extent by the experienced poll pundits.
The
expectation: Already four alliances are visible. Political analysts
do not rule out even one or two more alliances emerging in the last day of
filing nomination papers. This document is an attempt to predict the election
outcome based on emerging alliances &
the voters possible preferences towards each alliance party.
1.
All India
Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): This party for all
practical purpose, will be the leading party in the state with 30% voters as its
share. Somehow, it has kept this base
intact primarily thanks to freebies provided and some still in the
pipeline. More so, the Charisma of
Dr.J.Jayalalithaa still sways over the masses. Her Charisma, if properly reach
the voters, can wean away another 5-8% voters from the fence sitters. Poll
pundits mostly classify these voters as “neutral” “non-committed” “undecided”.
No doubt, the demi-god-like image of Dr.J.Jayalalithaa, projected by the party
leaders & workers would grease the wheel of canvassing more smoothly in
favour of the party to draw the undecided voters. Perhaps, only the court
decision can further mar/ boost her image.
Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP): If joins hands with AIADMK, no doubt this
alliance will sweep the poll, as the BJP can bring another 4-6% voters.
Political pundits think that there is an ideal political understanding between
PM & CM on the alliance matter and it will be known once the elections are
announced. Such an alliance is possible
if AIADMK agrees to part a minimum of 50 seats to BJP. Anything below this
number is not in line with the BJP’s all India status. However, the seats
sharing formula depends on how the case against the Dr.J.Jayalalithaa would be
decided by the Supreme Court. If the verdict
is favourable to Dr.J.Jayalalithaa, the bargaining ability of BJP will come go
down. If Dr.J.Jayalalithaa loses the case, she may be prepared to give even 75
seats or more to safeguard the party leaders’ migration to other parties. If
both the parties come together and form an alliance, the dream of all other CM
candidates will end like Will-o’-the-Wisp. They can still run but not with the
hope to first-past-the-post.
2.
Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK): Despite various scams and scandals,
internal political simmering among few leaders and family feuds among siblings,
DMK continues to enjoy the strong support from 20% voters. Even if the 2G
verdict goes against DMK, the party can count on this base to win few seats and
get deposit in most other seats. Since there is about 10% “Base” votes
difference between AIADMK and DMK, the latter need to obtain the support of one
or two parties who can in total bring a minimum of about 8 – 12% voters to its
fold. Nevertheless, even without other parties coming with it, DMK can give a
good fight to AIADMK, at the micro level in few constituencies. With a
well-planned strategy, DMK can keep its supporters within its fold. DMK should
have a plan to wean away a majority from “undecided” voters. It is possible,
provided the party listen to “few voices” from within the party and also from
outside well-wishers.
Mr.
Stalin, DMK’s emerging leader in all respects, seems the rightful leader to the throne. He relies more on the modern communication
techniques & image building exercise conceived by the marketing
professionals who are more like “desk researchers”. He needs to take advice on
all these matters from “traditional warriors” of the election rather than rely
only on his family members. The more Mr. Stalin discard the experienced old
voices, at the ground level he would be a loser. A good Banker always tries to
do business without losing money. Similarly, he has to listen to the verses of
old guards with the modern music composed by the young professionals.
His
political backroom boys now seem to be very particular about his “Namakku
Namaey Plan” whereby they want him to shake hands with at least 20 million
voters. I understand that his itinerary is planned in such a way that he would
interact with all sections of society during his constituency journey to know
their life and aspirations. It is good that his poll strategist thought about a
plan like this. Yes, this will give an impression that he is for a change, and
he would bring a transformation. But this alone will not be sufficient to get
the required MLAs.
In the
end, if the party is serious it has to have at least one powerful ally with it,
even if the ally demands 40 or 40 plus
seats try to win over it. But then it should be very choosy in selecting this
partner. One or two partner will add more strength whereas one or two party
will only loosen the alliance. Had, MDMK thrown its weight behind DMK, it would
emerge as a powerful alliance. Perhaps, knowing this outcome, few very cleverly
burnt the bridge between DMK and MDMK. Both the party leaders are also to be
blamed for the recent unwanted animosity between them.
3.
DMDK: Of late,
DMDK is making a lot of “noises” and would like to lead a mega alliance without
the AIADMK & DMK. In today’s political context, it is not possible for DMDK
to bring to its fold all non-Dravidian parties. If it happens, it will be
nothing but a miracle. If such a scenario arises, then the real fight will be
between AIADMK and the Mega Alliance headed by Mr.Vijaykanth. In such a
scenario, DMK will be pushed to the third level. It is nothing but wishful thinking. Since
DMDK, presently the opposition party in the Assembly, is not efficiently functioning,
its voters’ base has eroded and the undecided voters will also be cautious in
aligning with DMDK.
Such an
alliance is not possible: because of the simple Arithmetic on seats sharing.
Even a simple seat sharing formula demands the existence of 300 seats as
against the available 234 seats.
|
Sl.No.
|
Parties
|
Seats
|
|
1.
|
DMDK
|
125
|
|
2.
|
BJP / TMC /
Congress (only one will be in the alliance not all the three
|
50
|
|
3.
|
MDMK
|
40
|
|
4.
|
COMMUNISTS
|
35
|
|
5.
|
VCK
|
40
|
|
6.
|
OTHERS
|
10
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
300
|
First of
all, it is very unlikely that TMC, Congress and BJP will be in one alliance.
They would rather be in three different places than in the company of one
rainbow type alliance. While allotting the seats the writer also believes only
one will be in the company. Sometimes even retaining any one of the three will
also become a herculean task for the DMDK.
Hope against Hope. Let us
assume a situation where each party is prepared to scale down by 20% to 25% for
the sake of an alliance. In such an event, the next question is - who will lead
the alliance? Naturally, all the political leaders will have to accept
Mr.Vijaykanth. Mr.Vijaykanth has been
dreaming to become the CM, failing which at least a Deputy CM post to
Dr.Premalatha, to his wife. Mr.Vaiko, an experienced politician, may not be
happy that a junior in Politics to be the leader of alliance wherein he is part
of it, leave alone he accepting him as CM.
In his inner mind, he would even accept Dr.J.Jayalalithaa or
Mr.Thirumavalavan of VCK rather than accepting.
Mr.Vijaykanth. Let us assume for
a moment that all parties accept Mr.Vijaykanth. But then which party will get
the Deputy CM post? That will be the last straw that will break the camel’s
neck / alliance.
4.
Progressive Alliance: Of
late, MDMK, VCK, both Communists and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK) are
talking about, forging an alliance in the name
People’s Welfare Front, the name sound like an NGO name. It may be possible. Mr.Vaiko may also be
ready and be the acceptable choice to lead the front. Seats sharing will also
very easily be on 20% basis as each one would get an equal share of the total
pool i.e. about 45 seats to each. In a
sense in no other alliance, these parties would get this much seats. So there
would be satisfaction on the number of seats being divided. Perhaps, there may
be some problems in the identification constituency for the each party. This
could also be easily be solved.
After the
election whichever party gets the highest seats, that party leader can be the
Front leader in the Assembly and if by chance, if the Front leader becomes, the
highest gathers of MLAs, he or she can be the CM! In a sense, this front will
have five CM candidates. This will show the sign of discontent very soon among
this front leaders. Having said that, one should also acknowledge the fact that
Mr.Vaiko is a right choice to lead the front. Others will have to wholeheartedly endorse this.
The
greatest hitch will be to bring all the Alliance party workers at the micro
level to work together. What’s possible at the leaders’ level may not be
possible at the workers level. The workers devoid of any sound monetary
benefits to sustain their interest may become very lazy, resulting in the
alliance becoming poor fourth in many places.
In many places, they may also side with the prospective winning party.
5.
PMK: Dr.
Ramadoss and his son Dr.Anbumani would like to lead an alliance under the
banner of PMK. None of the parties in Tamil Nadu is now willing to go with PMK
as it has unilaterally declared Dr.Anbumani as the CM candidate. PMK has already made it clear only those who
accept Dr.Anbumani as CM can join with them. Perhaps, BJP may opt for PMK,
provided it has no place either with AIADMK or with DMDK. On its own, the chance
of PMK getting more than 3% voters across the state is very remote. But then in
terms MLA seats it may get about 3 /4 seats because of its strong presence in
few pockets in the state just like Dr. Anbumani won the MP seat in 2014 from
Dharmapuri with a difference of 70000 votes.
If the party wants to be in a political limelight, it has to join an
alliance. One hopes better counsel would
prevail among the party leaders.
6.
The Congress & TMC: These are
two parties, generally do not join with others on many issue and others
agitations. They want to give a clean image, but then they were part of UPA1
& II. This put them in an awkward situation. Their vote bank generally
comes from the original undivided Congress sympathisers. Many politicians in the state will count
their company as a blessing in disguise. Both try to project a larger image of
themselves than what is on the ground. However, when it comes to actual voters
backing, both together may corner nearly 8% polled voters. This is the highest.
This
chunk of vote splitting or standing apart as separate inland would make a
difference in poll outcome in a multi-level contests. The Congress joining with
AIADMK is ruled out but in case BJP is not with AIADMK, TMC perhaps can join
with it. These two parties cannot be
together in one alliance. They should have been together till the Assembly poll
in 2016. Mr Vasan, otherwise a calm person had taken a quick decision in
leaving his parent party. If one chooses DMK, another one will have to choose
DMDK. There is a possibility of the
Congress joining with its past ally DMK. But in the electoral field both may
not gain much, as there is much distrust at various levels for their fall in
last Assembly election as well as in 2014 Lok Sabha poll.
Final Analysis: Political pundits,
as of now, can only predict the vote share of each party if independently each
party fight the election, that too with 10% margin of error. By one party
joining with the other, one cannot conclude the base total will add up as per
the arithmetic addition i.e. 3 + 3 may become 6, or may not be six, it may
became 7 or even 5.
One is
not sure when the SC would deliver its judgment on the appeal against the case
of Dr.J.Jayalalithaa. Its outcome has the capacity to totally change the clouds
over the Horizon.
Again, at
present one cannot precisely say what will happen to the DMK’s Modi / Obama
type campaign. Would it flop or reward. No one knows. To some extent, it will build
an atmosphere, for good canvassing, if nothing in between distracts the
momentum.
It is
also too early to determine as how “Neutral” / undecided voters would behave.
The present trend slightly favours Dr.J.Jayalalithaa to emerge as the winner if she fights the election whole heartedly. DMK under the
leadership Mr. Stalin may become a distant second.
This
being the background and based on my past experience of 40 years of poll watch
(Since 80’s) and as the one who successfully predicted most elections outcome
(and also as the one who’s prediction went entirely wrong in the last Lok Sabha
poll), I have no hesitation in concluding, as of now what will be the share of
each party votes percentage and possible seats projection.
|
Sl.No.
|
Political
Parties
|
Votes
Share %
|
Possible
seats
|
|
1.
|
AIADMK
|
30
|
120
|
|
2.
|
DMK
|
20
|
40
|
|
3.
|
BJP
|
4
|
7
|
|
4.
|
CONGRESS
|
4
|
6
|
|
5.
|
TMC
|
3
|
3
|
|
6.
|
DMDK
|
9
|
10
|
|
7.
|
MDMK
|
3
|
6
|
|
8.
|
VCK
|
3
|
5
|
|
9.
|
COMMUNISTS
|
3
|
5
|
|
10.
|
OTHERS
|
3
|
8
|
|
11.
|
UNDECIDED
|
18
|
24
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
234
|
The voters’ base is an average across the
state. It does not mean in each district or constituency the parties will get
the same share of votes. Depending upon the parties base, the candidate merits, the local workers support, the alliance contribution, the
votes share of each party/ alliance will remain the same or more or less.
Conclusion: Things
in the political scenario is very fluid. Unfortunately, the situation is so
uncertain that at least six political party leaders now think that they
can make it to the top post. It will take another three months to get a good
mirror view of the ground situation. Meantime,
all the CM – aspirants can take stock of their flocks and based on ground reality or their flocks strength venture to pasture
alone in the field or join the company
of other shepherds to drive the flocks together for water. Of course,
this is a good time for the poll analysts
& political correspondents to predict the outcome. This is also one such prediction with an
academic interest. If it becomes close to
the outcome, it is nothing but a win to
poll forecastingq
