Dr. Jayalalithaa, CM of Tamil Nadu, a strong PM candidate or a PM decider.
An opinion from Tamil Nadu
By
R.Bhakther Solomon
The smart one. Your issue dated 23rd January 2012, had published an article “the spring of the Matriarchs” wherein, Mr.Hartosh Singh Bal, analysed the possibility of any one, out of the three, lady CM becoming the PM of the country. For reasons best known, he has not mentioned Ms. Shella Dixit in the race, even though she is a much more capable leader. Since the election is scheduled to be held only in 2014, it is too early to throw names in the corridors of power or even among the public. However, since the UPA at present is not in a strong position, there is an element of doubt about the UPA completing its full 5 years term. No wonder, the print, the electronic media as well as the poll pundits have started wondering as to who is the fittest person for the job. To certain extent, the two leading national parties are clear. Congress votes for Rahul! BJP may have some confusion with! Advani and Modi already lined up. As days progress other names will also come up from BJP, including that of the party president.
Regional Parties: The regional parties are yet to make their possible alliance intention . How many regional chieftains will be with the Congress? Will DMK, NCP and NCP continue to be in alliance with the congress? What will AIADMK do? Will it go alone or form an alliance with its “natural ally” BJP? Incidentally, it is BJP which says AIADMK is natural ally and not AIADMK. Who will regional satraps like SP, BSP, Nitish Kumar and Laloo ally with is not clear .Most importantly, what will the Communists, a party losing its base everywhere, do? Will it try to form a Third Front with all the minor frustrated parties and become a “spoiler”/ “decider”? All these things are in a fluid stage. Under such circumstances, it is premature to make any prediction. Be that as it may. As far as the prediction of the one lady CM making to the top spot, as the one who has been closely watching the poll scene for more than 3 decades, I would say out of the three / four ladies, if chance is given, Dr. J. Jayalaithaa will out smart others.
Mandate. In the last Tamil Nadu Assembly election in July 2011, people of Tamil Nadu voted her, rather her alliance, with the hope that she would give good governance to the state for the entire term, as then the voters felt that the State was in complete shambles under the DMK rule. Though AIADMK/her alliance was voted to power with a massive mandate, it is important to note that the AIADMK alliance polled only 51.93%. Had the party fought alone the last Assembly election, the AIADMK may not have got a massive majority. But then one should also acknowledge the fact that the AIADMK would have emerged as the single largest party in the state. Probably, AIADMK, would have even got the simple majority. The massive victory she got during the assembly election thanks, to the alliance and the recent civic election when the party fought the elections on its own might have fuelled the hope in her that AIADMK as a single party can sweep all the seats in the forthcoming Lok Shaba election in Tamil NDU. So the slogan / Mantra by the party workers “Yesterday Tamil Nadu Assembly, to day Civic Polls and tomorrow the Parliament”.
Alliance falls out. Presently all of AIADMK’s erstwhile alliance partners( mainly DMDK, PT, both the communists) are not in good terms with her/ and her party. The AIADMK does not want to carry them along with it- it considers all the alliance parties as excess baggages- is yet another story. But then their departure from the alliance only shows that the AIADMK may not now command the respect and the support it had commanded during the last election. These parties would wipe out a minimum of 8 % of the vote base from the alliance arithmetic .This would mean a loss of about 55 assembly seats. The Sasikala exit is also another alliance fallout! By throwing out a person of extra constitutional authority from the corridors of power the party earned a morale booster. This must have happened long ago but still it is not too late in completely destroying the coterie around the Sasikala. But then, in the electoral arithematic Sasikala’s entry or exit in no way bring any loss or gain to the party. The intelligentia now feel that Sasikala has now been replaced by a new set of advisors. They are respected for the theories but not for the practices. So in between the last Assembly election and the present time AIADMK has lost a minimum 8% of votes on account of the alliance fall out. Thirdly in last election the non-committed voters roughly about 11% were with the AIADMK alliance. Presently, there is some discontent among the non-committed voters. They are now a divided house.
Reach of welfare schemes. No doubt the State under her leadership is emerging as forerunner in many social security schemes meant for the poor. The government has increased monthly pension for the destitute and underprivileged to Rs. 1000 under the old age scheme. This is the highest in the country. Immediately after the election she announced free rice scheme whereby all the poor, first time in the state for that matter in the entire country, were ensured food security. The late MGR introduced the free mid- day meal to all the children. Earlier in the 50’s itself the Congress regime under the late K.Kamaraj also had a mid-day meal. When MGR made announcement of “free meal” many opposed the scheme saying he is making our children as “beggars”. But then many development economists, including the highest court at one stage hailed this as one of the best development schemes implemented in the country. No wonder, many states followed this mid- day meal scheme. Similarly, in the present scheme, though few finance experts see something wrong , it is being welcomed by many as the one which provides the food security to the poor. Even the centre’s recent Food Security act fall short of providing the real food security to the poor. The Government’s scheme of distribution milch cows, sheep and goat has received remarkable response from the poor and about 1.12 lakh families will benefit during 2011- 2012. The recent health insurance scheme is also welcomed by many. Though it was earlier implemented by the DMK government, she made good improvements. This act of her was even hailed by the former CM Dr. Karanunidhi as best schemes by the Governments. However , as far as the poor housing scheme is concerned, though the govt modified the earlier Kalaingar Housing Scheme with Green House Scheme with higher subsidy, it is yet to take a big headway. Instead of 6000 houses planned for the year 2011-2012 only about 600 houses are under construction.
Thane cyclone. Unfortunately as Tsunami hit in 2004 during her previous rule, this cyclone came and devastated lives of Cuddalore district fully and few villages in five more districts. There are thousands of families which have completely lost their livelihood like cashew, Jack fruits and coconut crops. They will have to wait for the next 5 years without any income from the land/ trees. It is reported that more than 1 lakh huts were destroyed. So also many good trees which had provided lot of green cover / environmental protection to the region were destroyed. How the Government is going to compensate the affected families is not clear. Of course CM has announced a good package as immediate relief. “In the Governors speech to the Assembly the Government said that it will construct 3 lakh houses for the affected families”. In the case of Tsunami, many Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) came into the scene and not only supplemented the government’s efforts of relief but also came in a big way to provide livelihood - boats free of cost, some families had received two or three boats in the place earlier one catamaran, and all the families who had lost their homes have received good houses, about 25000 permanent shelters, each costing roughly Rs.2.25 to Rs.3.5 lakh in about 56 villages. Tanks to the interventions of the NGOs the affected areas have received good rehabilitation. In the case of Thane cyclone the NGOs presence is hardly visible as against multiple NGOs presence in the Tsunami affected areas. In overall the affected families are not happy.
Issues: Some of her decision which AIADMK party leaders and the workers hail as the best thing she had done for the state, when it comes to the general public and in particular the previous DMK government, all think that the decisions are not good measures for the growth of the state. The confusion and the delay caused on account of court cases with regard to the implementation of uniform syllabus (Samachir Kaluri) was not appreciated by many parent. AIADMK’s decision to dismiss the Makkal Nala Paniyalar is yet another unfavoured decision. The high court has now asked the Government to reinstate them. Her decision to convert the Omanthur new secretariat building constructed with a cost of about Rs. 900 crores by the previous government, as a general hospital is not welcomed by All. So also her decision to Change the Anna Library new building constructed and being appreciated as one of the best buildings/ libraries in the whole county is also not viewed favourably by the public. Yet another measures introduced by her- the 40 to 50 % increase in the bus fare and the similar one proposed high increase in electricity - and the milk price rise are not welcomed by many. There is no improvement in law & order situation. No relief from price rise of commodities. No body can stop this! The Government could not do much to stop the attack and the harresment of Tamilnadu fishermen by SriLanka Navy. The development economist feels that the state in order to implement its much publicised welfare free same , unnecessarily and unwantedly impose heavy penalties on all section so society. The Government is not clear with regard to its stand on Kudankulam Nuclear Plant. Again, Mullai Periyar river has suddenly sprang up. In all these, the Government is in the receiving end.
Time factor: The fruits of the much published schemes are yet to reach the poor and the intended target group. So everywhere a kind of disillusionment is seen. Nevertheless, it is good that people are not as frustrated as they were during the DMK regime. Luckily she took these unpalateable decisions atleast 2 years prior to the forthcoming election. Hence there is a possibility of people ignoring the ommissions provided there are other good development schemes in the anvil for the state. After the all, hardly 8 months have passed after the election. It is too early to judge the performance or of an elected government. The public should give at least 2.5 years to judge the performance of a government. AIADMK has the time to amends most of its mistakes and deliver good to the community. It is also true that all voters all the time will not be content with the Government. There will always be about 50% of the critic voters. Nobody can satisfy them.
Will she make it? At this stage, it is premature to talk about next PM. There are many dark horses in the race, atleast 8 stalwarts from different parties. Her close advisors have kindled the spirit of Super Power in her. No wonder, she looks for the top post in the country. This talk, one way helps her to be the best Administrator of the country! She should first earn the good name in the state from all sections of society. Then should aspire to be the PM. Dreaming a bigger post in the future, she should not ignore the present role. AIADMK under her leadership needs a new Development strategy. How can that strategy be planned will be proposed by me in my next article. Meantime let us think that she is definitely a good material to become the PM like Mr. Modi or like Mr. Nitsh Kumar of Bihar. However, the more the number of seats she gets in Tamil Nadu, the more the probability of she playing any role at the centre. Anyway aiming at the bigger role for her by her and of her by her followers is nothing wrong. Only the time will answer, as already history had made few state leaders, without all India base as PM. We should, at this juncture, keep in mind the other aspiring PM candidates- Rahul Gandhi, Advani or Susma or Modi from BJP, then Mayawathi, Mamatha, Nitsh Kumar and even people like Laloo. UP result will give the clue as to who can cherish the hope more to become the PM of the country. Let us wait for the round one result!r
