An editor of a leading News Paper said that the state polls are critical for UPA in Delhi. What he meant is that the polls outcome in the short run will alter the power equation in the Upper House. But in the long run, it may alter the power equation in the country, as the UP poll will decide who will pilot the statecraft from 2013/2014. The UP poll is likely to create a butterfly effect in National politics. It will either elevate or mar the prospects of the young Rahul Gandhi assuming the bigger role in the country in 2013/2014. If he wants to be the PM of the country, better he becomes the CM of the biggest state in the Indian Union. If he is not fully equipped and qualified to make the party to assume power in UP, he may not be fit enough to lead the party in the next general election, which most probably will take place much earlier than in 2014 as originally scheduled.
Will Congress gain more seats in UP? The chance of the party improving its present tally of 22 seats is much greater but then definitely it will not improve its tally by ten times. The magic number is 203. If the Congress gets 203 then it will be a political miracle to talk about for years to come. Had the congress party and the young leader conducted the last 2 years poll preparations much more systematically, even getting this magic figure would have been within the party’s reach. But the party leader failed to provide the needed impetus to the party, as he had failed in Tamil Nadu. Of course, in TN he and the party lost all the credibility after election. But in UP it has some credibility. Hence it is still possible for the Congress to be an active player in UP.
What is the chance of the congress party getting a 100 plus in UP? Very likely! But then will it be the single largest party in UP? Or it will be pushed to 2nd or 3rd position? No one can say now. Its immediate goal should be to run faster than BJP so that the BJP is pushed in the fourth position than to the third one. If the party gets 100 plus, will there be a chance for the party to align with SP or BSP to form or part of the new government? Will the erosion in the vote bank of BSP help the Congress or the SP?? What is the chance of BJP improving its tally?
What is the current scenario? The coming weeks will slowly unfold many things which may give pointers for the pollsters to predict the things that is in store for not only for the UP but for the country in particular. For the time being let me predict that the chance of the Congress party emerging as the third largest party is much higher. Will it gain more ground to emerge as the 2nd or the third single party? More will be in the next week analysis.
Poll Surveys: Meantime, it is good to record here that there are already two pre poll surveys out and both predicted SP as the forerunner, followed by BSP, the congress and the BJP. These surveys were done much before the alliance are forged and also before the election schedule are announced. After these two developments much water are expected to flow down in the Ganges and that will make much differences in the final outcome. Long live party politics.
