UP; will the congress make it? There is a possibility , provided the sister and the brother unitedly work together.

UP; will the congress make it? There is a  possibility , provided the sister and the brother unitedly work together.
By R. Bhakther Solomon

Beginning: Things are now in the fast track mode for the election in UP. Ten days are left for the first phase of voting. The entire country is looking forward to the result. The outcome is bound to throw few conclusions as to who would win the next Parliamentary elections, whenever that election is held. There are indications from the ground that the Congress party has nothing to lose but to gain only. How much it will gain is the speculation now. Will it emerge as the single largest party in the state? Will it cross the 99 seats mark? If it gets a three digit mark, will it form the Government on its own or will it try to rope in SP or even seek the support of BSP to form the government? These are few questions which are upper most in the minds of poll analysts/ poll pundits. No doubt, the Congress party is now ahead of other parties in the campaigning.

Sister appeal. Should Priyanka confine herself only to two MP constituencies or should she intensively and extensively work in the state? In case she/ the congress party decides to field her, what will happen to the poll out come? This is what is giving sleepless nights to may politicians. There is a feeling from many parts of the state that if Priyanka makes a whirl wind tour of the entire state, the party might get about 35-50 additional seats in the state.  Rahul Gandhi, so far does not want her to travel beyond the two MP seats which he and his mother Sonia represent in the Parliament. This could be keeping in consideration her security or he may not want someone in the party to take credit for the victory of the party. Even if Congress gets about 75 seats he would like to be honoured for the same. Nothing wrong. But in politics one must adopt give and take policy.

CM Candidate  from the Congress: So far he  or the Congress party has not declared who will become the CM of the state, if for some miraculous reasons the party emerges as the biggest party. To set things in the proper order, I would recommend and appeal to Rahul to declare publically that he would be the CM candidate from the Congress and contest from an assembly seat. This will give the party a big boost and he can then invite his sister also to canvass for the  party beyond the limited areas. To start with, the party will have to take two important strategic decisions.  First, induct Priyanka into the entire state canvassing engagement and then most importantly, announce Rahul as the CM candidate. These two annoucements will revitalise the spirit of the party workers from the length and breadth of the state. No wonder, there is every chance of the party emerging as the single largest party in the state. Who knows it mighty also get the needed simple majority.

                                                                                                                       

Raghul as the CM of UP. After  the last Lok Sabha election when the ministry formation was seriously talked about, many young and the old in the party felt that Rahul should either become the PM or at least an important cabinet minister. During that time I felt that the time has not come for him to become a minister, leave alone becoming PM of the country. Though a few columns I have said that he should  resist the temptation to become the minister, instead try and work out a strategy to become the CM of the largest state in the country , namely UP. I felt that this would give him enough apprenticeship in the art of statecraft and then later he can move to the centre. The time has now come for him to become more pro- active in the governance of the UP. Will he take the responsibility or shy away?   

 

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UP election: a bumpy road travel poses the challenge for Rahul Gandhi, the young leader to reach the final destination

An editor of a leading News Paper said that the state polls are critical for UPA in Delhi.  What he meant is that the polls outcome in the short run will alter the power equation in the Upper House. But in the long run, it may alter the power equation in the country, as the UP poll will decide who will pilot the statecraft from 2013/2014. The UP poll is likely to create a butterfly effect in National politics. It will either elevate or mar the prospects of the young Rahul Gandhi assuming the bigger role in the country in 2013/2014. If he wants to be the PM of the country, better he becomes the CM of the biggest state in the Indian Union. If he is not fully equipped and qualified to make the party to assume power in UP, he may not be fit enough to lead the party in the next general election, which most probably will take place much earlier than in 2014 as originally scheduled.

Will Congress gain more seats in UP? The chance of the party improving its present tally of 22 seats is much greater but then definitely it will not improve its tally by ten times. The magic number is 203. If the Congress gets 203  then it will be a political miracle to talk about for years to come. Had the congress party and the young leader conducted the last 2 years poll preparations much more systematically, even getting this magic figure would have been within  the party’s reach. But the party leader failed to provide the needed impetus to the party, as he had failed in Tamil Nadu. Of course, in TN he and the party lost all the credibility after election. But in UP it has some credibility.  Hence it is still possible for the Congress to be an active player in UP.

What is the chance of the congress party getting a 100 plus in UP? Very likely! But then will it be the single largest party in UP? Or it will be pushed to 2nd or 3rd position? No one can say now.  Its immediate goal should be to run faster than BJP so that the BJP is pushed in the fourth position than to the third one. If the party gets 100 plus, will there be a chance for the party to align with SP or BSP to form or part of the new government? Will the erosion in the vote bank of BSP help the Congress or the SP?? What is the chance of BJP improving its tally?

What is the current scenario? The coming weeks will slowly unfold many things which may give pointers for the pollsters to predict the things that is in store for not only for the UP but for the country in particular. For the time being let me predict that the chance of the Congress party emerging as the third largest party is much higher. Will it gain more ground to emerge as the 2nd or the third single party? More will be in the next week analysis.

Poll Surveys: Meantime, it is good to record here that there are already two pre poll surveys out and both predicted SP as the forerunner, followed by BSP, the congress and the BJP. These surveys were done much before the alliance are forged and also before the election schedule are announced. After these two developments much water are expected to flow down in the Ganges and that will make much differences in the final outcome. Long live party politics.  

The next PM of the country: the hunt for the leader has started

Hobson’s choice. Last week, the AIADMK supreme  gave  a Clarion call to her party workers to work very hard henceforth so that her  party could play the role of a King or Queen maker and would be able to influence the decision on who would become the next PM of the country. She also informed her party workers that the time was ripe for the AIADMK to go beyond the borders of Tamil Nadu.  She asked the cadres to work diligently in the coming days and achieve this goal.  Indirectly, of course, she has made it very clear that her “inner most wish” is to become the PM of the country herself. She is fortunate that she heads a party which strongly follows her dictums. No wonder, the party cadres as well as the leaders are all support for what ever Amma wishes for...

Dr. Jayalalithaa for the post? Dr. Jayalaithaa has been aspiring for more than a decade to become PM or at least wants to be in a position to  “select a PM” of her choice. Earlier, she depended on Mr Subramaniya Swamy to do the ground work in  Delhi for her elevation. Somehow he was never able to help her achieve this dream. Now she seems to be depending on Mr. Cho Ramaswamy and Gurajat CM Mr. Modi. Maybe her new advisor Mr. Cho Ramaswamy may have also sown such a seed in her thoughts.. Every Tamilian will feel proud if this were to become possible following the next General election.  If Mr. Deva Gowda can become the PM, then Dr. Jayalalithaa is by all means not only a highly suitable candidate but also a very able one at that. In fact  7 years ago I met a former AIADMK Minister and expressed this idea to him & requested him to take up this matter with her, however, he  did not show much interest & hence I left the matter there!

Other regional leaders. To fullfill her wish she needs to get the support of either of the two leading parties - the BJP or the Congress or seek support from the third front, including the communists. There is a remote possibility of Mr. Modi supporting her in the event of BJP not staking claim  to rule at the Centre. But will Sushma Swaraj allow this for she has her own aspirations. The media has already lined up few candidates from the regional parties and Mr. Nitsh Kumar, Bihar CM is considered a strong possibility... If Mayawathi retains power in the upcoming assembly elections in  UP, the media might even annoint  her as the next PM. The media has also often thrown up the names of the less ambitious Bengal CM as a another possibility. It is good to note here that the Gujarat CM is himself cherishing such a wish. Probably  he might in turn be looking for support from Dr.JJ. Between them, it is only give and take policy, “either you become or support me”. Mr. Modi is expected to be in Tamil Nadu in mid- January. There are reports that claim that he will be meeting up with his counterpart in Chennai.

  

Seats Matters: To ensure that Jayalalithaa is the choice for the PM’s post, her party should have a sizable number of seats at her command; let us say a minimum of 30 seats provided no national party has 125 seats or more. Her intention is to completely sweep the entire 39 seats from TN and the lone seat from Pondicherry. As things stands now, she / her party may be able to get a maximum of 20 seats provided there is no crisis in the state before the General Elections. The less the number of seats, the less the probability of her playing any role and the vice versa. Aiming for a  bigger role for her and for her party is not inappropriate but in keeping with the political ambitions of most regional parties. Only time will tell if the the dear leader of AIADMK cadres will become the head of the Nation. But given that there has already been precedents of regional leaders like  Mr.Deva Gowda (despite the fact thtat he lacked mass appeal) becoming the Prime Minister, it would be tardy to rule out Jayalalithaa chances.

Conclusion: If the Congress emerges as the single largest party in UP, one can be rest assured that Congress will form the Government at the centre with Mr.Rahul Gandhi as PM. Only in the case of this eventuality will the dreams and hopes of all the other regional leaders be crushed!r